Mike Wilson | 06 February 2024
Alzheimer’s disease is one of the most common causes of death in the world. Usually a disease of older age, data suggests dementias, more broadly, are now the second or third leading cause of death in high-income countries, depending on whether cancers are all counted together or not. According to the WHO, Alzheimer’s recently overtook strokes and is behind only ischaemic heart disease.
Total deaths from dementias in high-income countries have almost quadrupled in the last 20 years, yet so far medical science has very few answers. This is not for want of effort. Scientists have dedicated vast amounts of time and money seeking ways to at least slow down, if not reverse or prevent, this degenerative disease.
This article looks at the recent emergence of the first drugs which may be able to modify the effects of this terrifying disease.
For decades, scientists have struggled to understand what causes Alzheimer’s and develop drugs which can arrest, or at least slow, its progress. The biological mechanisms causing this disease remain poorly understood, and there are probably several which contribute. However, of these, one dominates much recent Alzheimer’s research.
Many scientists believe that the disease is caused by aggregations of proteins in the brain. This theory, known as the ‘amyloid hypothesis’ states that strands of a protein, known as amyloid beta, clump together to form deposits known as amyloids. Over time, more proteins become stuck to these deposits, eventually forming plaques which are large enough to disrupt communication between cells in the brain. Immune cells are activated, causing inflammation and, ultimately, the destruction of brain cells.
If this is how Alzheimer’s develops, then it makes sense to try to slow its progress by tackling these amyloid deposits. Three new drugs have created headlines recently as potential ‘game- changers’ for people with Alzheimer’s, and this is exactly how each of them tackles the problem.
The first, aducanemab, was conditionally approved for use in the United States in 2021. (1) The drug was demonstrably able to reduce amyloid plaques in people using it, but failed to meet its primary endpoint of clinically improving patients’ symptoms such as memory loss. As such, its approval was controversial. Lacking evidence that it would make any noticeable difference to patients, understandably, many doctors refused to prescribe it. Medicare – federal health insurance for Americans aged over 65 – and regulators elsewhere, including the UK and EU, also did not approve the drug for use.
Next on the scene was lecanemab. This too showed it could reduce amyloid plaques in the brain - dramatically so, in fact. This time there was also more positive news for patient outcomes, with trials suggesting it slowed decline in memory and thinking by a modest 27% after 18 months of treatment. Given the low bar for approval set by aducanumab, it is perhaps unsurprising that lecanemab was fully approved in July 2023 in the USA.2 Regulators elsewhere continue to assess the trial findings to determine if wider approval will follow.
Very recently, donanemab became the third drug to show some success in this area. It again demonstrated good success at reducing the underlying plaques, with substantial reductions in measurable plaques seen in around 80% of trial participants.
Although its abilities to improve clinical outcomes, e.g. memory loss, for patients were again modest, it appears at least as impressive as lecanemab. Disease progression slowed by around one-third in one sub-group of patients who had lower levels of another protein called tau. This effect reduces significantly to 22% slowing if people with higher levels of tau are included. The drug’s approval in the US is pending but expected to be granted.
It is undoubtedly exciting that medical science is reaching a point where it can make inroads against this disease. However, we must note the limitations of these drugs. The most fundamental of these is that their impacts on the symptoms of Alzheimer’s remain unspectacular, and limited to those with early-stage disease. Focusing on donanemab, because it appears the most promising, its trials actually produced counter-intuitive outcomes.
On the one hand, the drug achieved statistically significant improvements in patient outcomes, meaning that it is highly likely that the group taking the drug fared better than the one taking a placebo, and that the drug was the cause of this difference.
However, clinical significance - such as cognitive changes in a patient that can be measured - is in doubt. Progression of Alzheimer’s is difficult to measure and more subjective than for many diseases. The disease is measured by administering tests seeking to determine patients’ abilities in areas such as word recall, orientation, memory and word-finding, among many others. On one test used in the trial, changes of at least 5 points on the scale are the minimum considered clinically significant (3), and yet donanemab’s trial only led to an improvement of around 3 points (4). This means an average person using the drug, or their family, would likely not notice any difference after using the drug for 18 months, despite its claimed successes.
Longer-term impacts have not been tested, and the claimed significant improvement only emerges when we consider the trial participants at a group level.
The drugs also present practical problems. For one, they are not without side effects. Rare but serious side-effects include brain swelling and small strokes, with serious side effects affecting 1.6% of participants in donanemab’s trial, and a much larger 24% developing other less severe reactions to the drug. These drugs are also administered via infusion as an intravenous drip. Patients need to attend a clinic for up to an hour each week to receive the medication, although one new candidate drug – remternetug – is seeking to determine if an injectable alternative is viable, a bit like an EpiPen for diabetics.
Finally, there is a bittersweet result implied by many of the trial results discussed above. These drugs set out to tackle amyloid deposits in the hope that doing so would significantly alter the course of Alzheimer’s disease. They are actually very effective at the physical reduction of amyloids, meaning the muted impacts on patient outcomes are a concern. In other words, we may not have much scope to tweak the drugs to make them better, because they already meet their primary (physical) objectives. Instead, there are likely other entirely separate causes of the disease which we are not yet targeting at all.
These drugs are an important start. They are a proof of concept that Alzheimer’s disease can be modified, and provide some hope for further developments in future. However, those hoping we are on the cusp of turning Alzheimer’s into a manageable disease may be disappointed for a while yet. We will likely need to see significant further progress, including in areas with no successful drugs yet, before we can realistically hope to materially reduce the burden caused by this fearsome disease.
References
Pacific Life Re Limited (No. 825110) is registered in England and Wales and has its registered office at Tower Bridge House, St Katharine’s Way, London, E1W 1BA. Pacific Life Re Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulatory Authority in the United Kingdom (Reference Number 202620). The material contained in this booklet is for information purposes only. Pacific Life Re gives no assurance as to the completeness or accuracy of such material and accepts no responsibility for loss occasioned to any person acting or refraining from acting on the basis of such material.
©2024 Pacific Life Re Limited. All rights reserved.
Mike Wilson
Director, Medical Analytics
Protection
When asked what opportunities life reinsurers in Asia have, Pacific Life Re's Vasan Errakiah was quick to cite demand for insurance, changing regulations and the adoption of new technologies.
Protection
Asia Insurance Review spoke to Pacific Life Re's Mr Ong Qian Hao and FWD Group's Ms Fiona Hermans to understand how strategic partnerships can effectively address these challenges and lead to successful outcomes.
Medical Advances
Read our update on the impact of mortality from COVID-19.
Medical Advances
Lung cancer is often diagnosed at a late stage leading to poor prognosis for the individual. We look at how screening could have an impact.
Underwriting & Claims
Underwriting has been going through significant transformation over the last few years and continues to accelerate at an unprecedented pace. Traditionally seen as a barrier, there is now a growing opportunity to position underwriting as a strategic asset.
Protection
Big data analytics has been instrumental for (re)insurers aiming to boost performance, efficiency, and effectiveness.
Medical Advances
From emerging drugs which battle obesity to a review of the effectiveness of new blood tests both to detect cancer and to help slow down Alzheimer’s, we hope these insights help keep you up to date with the latest in medical research.
Medical Advances
Vaping is generally considered less harmful than smoking, however longer-term risks have not had time to emerge and could prove considerable.
Medical Advances
Despite broadly improving cancer mortality, some types of the disease are increasing in incidence
Protection
Consumer Duty has put increased focus on how much value different customers get from financial products. But how well is the protection industry serving different customer groups? Who are the most underserved groups, and what can the industry do to help serve these groups better?
Underwriting & Claims
Underwriting processes, practices and philosophies are changing with faster pace than we have ever experienced before.
Medical Advances
A new generation of drugs has now well and truly arrived aiming to improve weight loss. The drugs are heavily touted by celebrities and influencers, despite many of them having no medical need to lose weight. Obesity contributes significantly to some of the most common causes of death including heart disease and cancer, as well as affecting quality of life for millions. In this article we look at these increasingly available drugs offering hope to more people with obesity. We consider their potential to broadly improve health, and their limitations.
Medical Advances
Scientists successfully conducted early-stage trials which provide hope of a future cure for some of the most severe types of multiple sclerosis (MS).
Medical Advances
The world’s largest conference dedicated to the science and treatment of cancer took place in Chicago in early June. The American Society of Clinical Oncology’s annual meeting is a popular forum at which new scientific developments are often revealed.
Medical Advances
A recent review by WHO resulted in reclassification of pituitary adenoma as described in the article
Medical Advances
In 2023 we’ve seen soaring temperatures across the globe along with devastating storms and wildfires. Why is our climate changing and what impact is it having?
Medical Advances
Welcome to our first edition of Vital Insights. Here we’ve put together a collection of articles covering some of the major issues of the day with a specific focus on how they will impact mortality and morbidity.
Medical Advances
Total deaths from dementias in high-income countries have almost quadrupled in the last 20 years, yet so far medical science has very few answers. This article looks at the recent emergence of the first drugs which may be able to modify the effects of this terrifying disease
Medical Advances
COVID-19 has stolen the limelight from other respiratory viruses in recent years. However there are plenty of other common viruses which can have serious health consequences, among them Respiratory Syncytial Virus, or RSV.
Medical Advances
A new UN report reveals optimism about a possible end to the global AIDS epidemic
Medical Advances
Vaccine technologies have continued to improve greatly in recent years. However, vaccines are little use if people refuse to use them. Here we look at the precarious position of measles, a well-known but little-understood serious condition, which is held in check in most countries only because of high vaccine uptake.
Medical Advances
The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), the cancer research arm of the WHO, recently classified the common sweetener aspartame as a possible cause of cancer in humans.
Protection
Beneath the Surface report 2023 We explored some of the key drivers of sustainability for the protection market. We undertook consumer research which combined with our medical and underwriting expertise and our deep understanding of the market, enabled us to create this report.
Protection
Beneath the Surface report 2022 In this report, we analyse the current VAS landscape in the UK & Irish protection markets. Look to understand the views and experiences of customers, with the aim of assessing how much value these services are really adding today. Look at what insurers say, and consider what the future might hold for the development of VAS.