This article is adapted from a piece first published in Cover Magazine.

In a welcome break from recent news on worsening health in the UK, the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI), owned by the UK’s Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, have updated their forecasts for life expectancy at age 65 to increase by 8 weeks for men and 6 weeks for women.

This update is significant for insurers and pension schemes, as the CMI’s projections are widely regarded as the industry standard for UK mortality forecasting. Changes to these forecasts affect the pricing and valuation of liabilities, capital requirements, and long-term planning across the trillion-pound sectors.

Mortality to date in 2026 has reached a new low for the time of year. This comes as standardised mortality rates in England and Wales have fallen each year since 2020, with all-age mortality in 2025 representing the lowest on record and down 2% from 2024.

However, mortality rates for working-age adults were above the 2015-2019 average.

Although mortality in 2025 reached record lows at pensioner ages, mortality for males aged between 45 and 64 remained above the 2015-2019 average.

Cobus Daneel, chair, CMI Mortality Projections Committee, said: "After a turbulent period for mortality during the pandemic, we have seen a return to more normal conditions. A fall in mortality in 2025 has led to a further increase in projected life expectancy.

"But while recent mortality has set new record lows, the outlook for mortality remains uncertain. We encourage users of our model to consider adjusting the model's parameters to reflect their own portfolios and views on future mortality."

This update follows recent data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which found that healthy life expectancy in the UK for both males and females at birth decreased between 2022 and 2024 to its lowest recorded level.

The data showed that UK males can expect to spend 60.7 years (77% of life) in "good" general health, compared to 60.9 years (73%) for females. These mark a drop of 1.8 years and 2.5 years, respectively, compared with the last non-overlapping reporting period (2019-2021).

Commenting on the updated forecast, Dr Andrew Hunt, Head of Mortality Trend Research at Pacific Life Re who was not involved in the update, said “the CMI’s more positive outlook on future mortality relates to a change in methodology to better reflect the fewer deaths seen in older people in 2024 and 2025. This brings its latest forecast closer to our own estimates. In particular, we observed that excess deaths due to cardiovascular diseases following the pandemic have subsided and the severe flu seasons seen in the years leading up to the pandemic have not returned. We expect that life expectancy will continue to improve, at least in the short term.”

“As with forecasting in general, mortality modelling is inherently complicated, due to many factors including medical advances, lifestyle and policy changes. All long term forecasts should be treated with caution, and we continue to monitor life expectancy globally and key drivers such as the use of weight loss medicines.”